6 comments
52 forecasters
Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?
29%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 29% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Jan 11, 2019
Closes:Dec 1, 2019
Resolved:Sep 20, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 13, 2019
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?
22.8% chance
225
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
40% chance
65