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When will PHP die?
PHP is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995.
According to w3tech.com:
PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.
While builtwith.com estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.
Some popular websites using PHP:
Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.
Quora.com for example is overflowing with questions like:
- Is PHP dying in 2019? (25 Oct 2018)
- Is PHP dying in 2018? (27 Apr 2018)
- Will PHP die out in 2017? (24 Mar 2017)
- When will PHP finally die? (13 Feb 2017)
This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of w3tech.com or builtwith.com) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.
General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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