computing precise predictions aggregating predictive contingencies generating definitive forecasts modeling contingent insights formulating contingent predictions mapping the future computing calibrated insights computing accurate insights assembling accurate futures composing predictive estimations aggregating critical understanding computing contingent contingencies delivering calibrated understanding generating intelligent forecasts


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?

The government shutdown is an increasingly sharp tool in the US president's toolbox since President Ford wielded it first in 1976.

On the back of a reinterpretation of the 1884 Antideficiency Act President Carter was first to furlough government workers for the duration of a shutdown in 1980, giving the shutdown publicly visible teeth.

The current shutdown by President Trump is his third this term, and the longest by a good stretch (currently 9 days, compared to his previous three days and a couple hours respectively). The cost for such a shutdown can be enormous, which should be an incentive to not unnecessarily protract it.

Thus we ask:

When will the shutdown end?

It began on 22 Dec 2018, 9 days as of this writing. The record holder is President Clinton with 21 days. Resolves when credible media account indicates so, and if necessary closes retroactively 24 hours before the last step (e.g. Trump's signing something or a vote taken in a house of congress) that leads to the re-opening.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.