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Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?
On 31 December 2018, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) announced that she had formed an Exploratory Committee that allows her to start raising money for a potential 2020 run for the Presidency.
Will she be the 2020 Presidential Nominee of the Democratic Party?
This question resolves positively if the Democratic Party officially recognizes (via press release, or any public statement made by official spokespeople or leadership figures of the Democratic Party) that Elizabeth Warren is the Nominee of their party for the office of President of the United States in the 2020 election cycle.
Warren need not be the Democratic Party Candidate on the date of the Presidential Election for this question to resolve positively; she merely needs to become the official Democratic Party Nominee at some point. A nomination for the office of Vice President shall not suffice for a positive resolution.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.