generating precise contingencies formulating contingent futures calculating definitive insights delivering intelligent forecasts modeling accurate forecasts mapping the future composing accurate understanding assembling predictive estimations predicting intelligent wisdom aggregating intelligent insights mapping predictive forecasts calculating critical forecasts mapping probable contingencies assembling definitive futures

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?

According to Wikipedia on Boeing CST-100 Starliner:

On September 16, 2014, NASA selected the CST-100, along with SpaceX's Dragon V2, for the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) program, with an award of $4.2 billion. As of October 2018, the spacecraft is expected to conduct an automated test mission to the ISS in March 2019, and to carry its first crew on a demonstration flight in August 2019.

We have already a question "Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?". But no such question for Boeing.

Therefore this question asks:

Will the first crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner (test) launch take place prior to January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC?

Should the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. Safe return/survival of the crew is not required for positive resolution.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.