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Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?
The Standard & Poor's 500, often abbreviated as the S&P 500, or just the S&P is an American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
The S&P 500 index components and their weightings are determined by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It differs from other U.S. stock market indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the NASDAQ Composite index, because of its diverse constituency and weighting methodology.
It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market, and a bellwether for the U.S. economy. On 1 January 2019, the index stood at 2,506.85 points.
When the NYSE closes on Dec 31 2019, will the S&P 500 index be higher than 2,506.85 points?
Resolves positively in the event that value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 2,506.85 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 2,506.85 points.
Resolves ambiguously if the Index is discontinued or changed so substantially that, in the view of a Metaculus administrator, it is no longer reasonable to continue with this question.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.