Group

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

20 forecasters

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing

Deny ≥100 countries

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing

Restriction scope		My Prediction		Me
Deny some entities	33%

Deny ≤99 countries	6%

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing	3%

Deny ≥100 countries	2%

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing	1%

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing	1%

Deny all, secret or no new licenses	0.1%