conditional
if yes
if no
Make a Prediction
US restricts compute before 2026? | Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 28 Jan 2027 | — |
| median | Feb 2031 | — |
| upper 75% | Mar 2040 | — |
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
