Group

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

16 forecasters

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny ≥100 countries

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing

Deny all, secret or no new licenses

Restriction scope		My Prediction		Me
Deny some entities	90%

Deny ≤99 countries	85%

Deny ≥100 countries	7%

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing	2%

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing	1%

Deny all, secret or no new licenses	1%

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing	1%