🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026?

4
4
13 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Restriction scopeMe
Deny some entities
86.7%
Deny ≤99 countries
75%
Deny ≥100 countries
33%
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing
25%
Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing
20%
Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing
17.8%
Deny all, secret or no new licenses
14.8%
Authors:
puffymistPeterWildeforddschwarzwill_aldred
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Regulation of AI
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Export Administration Regulations
China
Supervised learning
Machine learning
United States
Member states of the United Nations
Reinforcement learning
United Nations peacekeeping

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