Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?
Although critical to the democratic model of government, voting in America has some problems. Turnout is often low, and the terms "butterfly ballot" and "hanging chad" still linger in our collective consciousness following the uncertainty of the 2000 presidential election.
Since we are already able to do practically everything else via the internet –bank, shop, communicate, etc., – online voting seems like a natural next step. Some argue that online voting would increase turnout and bring voting access to anyone with the internet, without the need to go to a polling place on Election Day.
Currently, 22 states allow for some form of online voting, allowing members of the military and other citizens living overseas to return their ballots by email. Only one state - Alaska - allows any registered voter, provided they pre-register, to use an online voting portal. Four other states offer an online voting portal. In March 2016 the Utah Republican Party offered online voting to all registered voters in its presidential caucus.
The major problem that hampers every proposal for online voting is security. Repeated analyses find that, given the impossibility of sufficiently protecting the millions of personal devices that would be used in an online election, the risk of malicious interference in the election is too high to recommend proceeding with online voting. The stakes are also too high, the analysts say, with no less than the balance of American political power in play.
Will online voting for all registered voters expand by the 2020 general election?
To resolve as positive, a credible news outlet must report that at least five states will allow any registered voter to submit their ballot for the 2020 general election via email or an online voting portal on or before November 3, 2020.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.