7 comments
136 forecasters
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
83%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 83% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 30, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolved:May 28, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 1, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.56 labs
(4.2 - 7.7)
5.56 labs
(4.2 - 7.7)
52 forecasters
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
99.9% chance
51
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
4% chance
81