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7
136
forecasters
10
7 comments
136 forecasters
Effective Institutions Project
3 more...
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
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2 comments
69 forecasters
Large Domestic Order Chinese AI Chips
95%
chance
0 comments
9 forecasters
Chinese Org Trains on > 1500-TFLOP GPUs
Current estimate
24 Mar 2026
2 comments
58 forecasters
Chinese Model Chinese Chips
69%
chance
10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
3 comments
28 forecasters
How larger will AI from non-authoritarian states be in 2030?
Current estimate
3.6×10²⁵ FLOP
0 comments
25 forecasters
Dates Large AI Models Released
8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026
2 comments
56 forecasters
Major CSP buys PRC-designed AI chip by 2028?
OVH
14%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
5%
Google Cloud
3%
4 comments
63 forecasters
Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?
75%
chance