136 forecasters

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

83%chance

83%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 83% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

May 30, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolved:

May 28, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 1, 2023

Effective Institutions Project

Artificial Intelligence

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