Question

If Donald J. Trump is convicted in the classified documents case, how many months of imprisonment will he be sentenced to?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction12.2

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>240

...

4.181

12.24

28.32

0.4%

Authors:

Jgalt

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Law

Politics

US Department of Justice

United States

Donald Trump

When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)

2026-01-01

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-16

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Law

Politics

US Department of Justice

United States

Donald Trump

Nearly half of people convicted of the same crimes as Donald Trump are sent to prison, study finds

Independent•Oct 9, 2024

Trump Fights To Keep Rest Of Jack Smith Filing Hidden After Bombshell Evidence Released

Forbes•Oct 11, 2024

Ask Jordan: When will Trump's criminal cases end?

MSNBC•Oct 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)

2026-01-01

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-16