28 comments
153 forecasters
Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 24, 2023
Closes:Jun 30, 2023
Resolved:Jul 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 24, 2023
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
24 Mar 2027
(10 Jun 2026 - 01 May 2028)
24 Mar 2027
(10 Jun 2026 - 01 May 2028)
345 forecasters
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
5% chance
1.9k
Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?
20% chance
21