174
408 forecasters
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
Current estimate
21 Jan 2028
Top Key Factors
- Russian economic stability
Hastens
Political stability
Hastens
Regime change
Delays
Resource deployment
Hastens
- Zelensky's approval
Delays
rhythm of military campaigns
Hastens
Russian recruitment numbers stable
Delays
political concessions from Ukraine, imposed under pressure by Donald Trump
Delays
- Ukrainian army reinforcement
Delays
Military learning curve
Delays
midterm elections
Delays