🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?

Resolved :No0.2%
6
7
Total Forecasters115
Community Prediction0.2% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
91.7
Community Peer Score
11.8
Authors:
amygdala
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Geopolitics
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Russo-Ukrainian War
Martial law in Russia
Vladimir Putin
Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin
2024 Russian presidential election
Federal subjects of Russia
Russia

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