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31 forecasters

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31 forecasters

Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?

ResolvedNo

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4 comments62 forecasters

Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?

3 comments34 forecasters

Mandatory GCR-Focused Evals for AI Systems

6 comments97 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet CEO pledge AI autonomy limits before 2027?

15 comments41 forecasters

Leading Lab No Safety

2026result: Yes

0 comments8 forecasters

Date that Google reports an AI reached CBRN uplift level 1?

Current estimate

5 comments29 forecasters

OpenAI Triggers 'Assist Clause'

30 comments90 forecasters

AGI Manhattan/Apollo Project

Current estimate

5 comments90 forecasters

Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?