Question
If Sahra Wagenknecht founds a new party, what percentage of the votes will this party get in the next German federal elections?
Resolved:4.972Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction
4.75
(3.67 - 6.05)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 3.674 | — |
| median | 4.749 | — |
| upper 75% | 6.048 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >20 | 0.1% | — |
What was the final result?4.972
Community Baseline Score
26.8
Community Peer Score
23.2
Authors:
Opened:Aug 3, 2023
Closes:Oct 25, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 5, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Aug 3, 2023
Closes:Oct 25, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 5, 2023