161 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria80%

Haiti74%

Mali62.5%

Syria

Haiti

Mali

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Authors:

Opened:

Jul 27, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

From barracks to palace: Soldiers who led military coups to become state leaders

Associated Press•Oct 18, 2025

Madagascar coup leader sworn in as president after Andry Rajoelina impeached amid "Gen Z" protests

CBS•Oct 17, 2025

Madagascar’s military power grab shows Africa’s coup problem isn’t restricted to the Sahel region

The Conversation•Oct 16, 2025

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