conditional
if yes
if no
Make a Prediction
Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040? | Date 1M-population country adopts UBI |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
The question "When will a 1M-population country adopt Universal Basic Income?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?" resolves.
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Aug 2032 | — |
| median | May 2040 | — |
| upper 75% | Feb 2047 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 0.6% | — |
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 17, 2021
Closed:Mar 14, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Authors:
Opened:Mar 17, 2021
Closed:Mar 14, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100