3 comments
59 forecasters
Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?
33%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
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Opened:Nov 10, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 13, 2023
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Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
50.8% chance
451
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
245 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30% chance
304