28 forecasters

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

60%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

Opened:

Nov 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 28, 2023

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Microsoft AI CEO warns against giving AI rights: 'That's so dangerous and so misguided'

Business Insider•Sep 11, 2025

Microsoft’s AI Chief Says Machine Consciousness Is an 'Illusion'

Wired•Sep 10, 2025

Anthropic Is Hiring Researchers to Study A.I. Consciousness and Welfare

Observer (NY)•Sep 9, 2025

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