🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

MetaculusM

Group

If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?

10

44 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 17

Texas

California

Florida

Hawaii

Alaska

Oregon

Make a Prediction

State		My Prediction		Me
Mississippi	5%

Texas	50%

California	35%

Florida	20%

Hawaii	17.4%

Alaska	9%

Oregon	5%

Louisiana	5%

Alabama	5%

South Carolinia	4%

Washington	2%

Utah	2%

Montana	2%

Wyoming	2%

Arkansas	2%

West Virginia	2%

Nevada	1%

Idaho	1%

Arizona	1%

Colorado	1%

North Dakota	1%

New Mexico	1%

South Dakota	1%

Nebraska	1%

Kansas	1%

Oklahoma	1%

Minnesota	1%

Iowa	1%

Missouri	1%

Wisconsin	1%

Illinois	1%

Kentucky	1%

Tennessee	1%

Michigan	1%

Indiana	1%

Ohio	1%

Maine	1%

New Hampshire	1%

Vermont	1%

Massachusetts	1%

Rhode Island	1%

Connecticut	1%

New York	1%

Deleware	1%

Maryland	1%

Virginia	1%

North Carolinia	1%

Georgia	1%

New Jersey	1%

Pennsylvania	0.9%

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Washington (state)

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Washington (state)