Question

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

150 comments150

Total Forecasters339

Community Prediction

01 Aug 2026

(24 Dec 2025 - 26 Jun 2027)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>01 Jan 2030
community	24 Dec 2025	01 Aug 2026	26 Jun 2027	3.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	24 Dec 2025	—
median	01 Aug 2026	—
upper 75%	26 Jun 2027	—
Upper bound
>01 Jan 2030	3.2%	—

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2023

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CNN•Aug 14, 2025

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Al Jazeera•Aug 14, 2025

Ukraine says it’s open to US-backed aerial cease-fire with Russia — but doubts Putin will agree

New York Post•Aug 13, 2025

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5.1%