156 comments

343 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

21 Nov 2026

Key Factors

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2023

On the Frontlines of the War That Will Change Europe

American Spectator•Oct 2, 2025

Russia says 'Cold War' is over and a 'fiery conflict' with the West has now begun

Daily Mail•Oct 2, 2025

Russia ‘Not Preparing for Peace’ With Military Spending—Economist

Newsweek•Sep 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026

1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025

1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?