162 comments
346 forecasters
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
Current estimate
27 Mar 2027
Top Key Factors
Authors:
Opened:Sep 2, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 4, 2023
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When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
59 forecasters
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2% chance
195
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
1% chance
386