Question

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

150 comments150

Total Forecasters339

Community Prediction

04 Aug 2026

(22 Dec 2025 - 13 Jul 2027)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>01 Jan 2030
community	22 Dec 2025	04 Aug 2026	13 Jul 2027	5.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	22 Dec 2025	—
median	04 Aug 2026	—
upper 75%	13 Jul 2027	—
Upper bound
>01 Jan 2030	5.6%	—

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2023

Geopolitics

Trump promises 'peace agreement' in Ukraine after Putin summit, reversing calls for a ceasefire

NBC•Aug 16, 2025

What’s at stake at the Trump-Putin Ukraine peace summit?

Guardian•Aug 15, 2025

Maps show the key regions in Ukraine that Putin wants

CNN•Aug 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

5.1%