160 comments

344 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

06 Mar 2027

Key Factors

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2023

Ukraine war briefing: Repairs begin in bid to restore power to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

Guardian•Oct 19, 2025

Russian forces, aided by heavy aerial bombardments, edge forward in Ukraine

CNN•Oct 18, 2025

Trump on Russo/Ukraine War: Stop at the Battle Line, Both Sides Go Home

Red State•Oct 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026

1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025

1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?