155 comments

341 forecasters

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

Current estimate

01 Nov 2026

Key Factors

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 2, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2023

Trump Issues Update on Zelensky-Putin Talks After Russia Sanctions Threat

Newsweek•Sep 15, 2025

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,299

Al Jazeera•Sep 15, 2025

Russia kills 4 in heavy blitz on Donetsk, Ukraine as Kremlin all but dashes hope of resuming peace talks

New York Post•Sep 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026

1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025

1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?