9 comments
13 forecasters
Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?
48%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 27, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2023
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Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?
80.1% chance
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What will productivity be in the United States in the following years?
76 forecasters
What percent of US GDP will come from manufacturing in the first half of 2028?
9.54%
(8.82 - 10.3)
9.54%
(8.82 - 10.3)
94 forecasters