Question

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction

80%

(79% - 88%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

srid

Opened:

Mar 21, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2042

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2043

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 24, 2024

The Bryan Caplan Collection

Economy & Business

Bryan Caplan

International Monetary Fund

S&P 500 Index

World Bank

Betting markets think bitcoin has already peaked this year

Business Insider•Mar 22, 2025

Can AI help you win your March Madness bracket? One disruptor bets $1 million on ‘yes’ (and Houston)

Associated Press•Mar 20, 2025

Wall Street's biggest bear coming into 2025 says stocks have bottomed out for now. He shares the 3 parts of the market he's banking on for gains.

Business Insider•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

1.4%

Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?

48%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Comments

? comments