MetaculusM

conditional

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

if yes

if no

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

4

Make a Prediction

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)	Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 35%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Economy & Business

People's Liberation Army

Economy of the United States

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Chinese Civil War

Historical GDP of China

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Economy & Business

People's Liberation Army

Economy of the United States

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Chinese Civil War

Historical GDP of China