🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

conditional
condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Resolved :Yes
24 forecasters
if yes
if no

Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?

5%
5%

Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?

40%
40%
Resolved :Annulled40%
3
0

Make a Prediction

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?

50%
community: 5%
The question "Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?" resolves.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
jacob.pfau
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Law
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution
Special Counsel investigation (2017–2019)
US Electoral College
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Washington, D.C.

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