Question

Will Planet Nine be found in 2016?

Resolved:No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters127

Community Prediction

29%

(20% - 44%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

8.2

Community Peer Score

20.3

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Mar 18, 2016

Closes:

Jul 31, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2017

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 18, 2016

Natural Sciences

Space

2016 Leaderboard

Researchers say there is now a 40% chance a ninth planet is in our solar system

•Jun 19, 2025

There’s Suddenly A 40% Chance ‘Planet Nine’ Exists — What To Know

Forbes•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

16%

Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

0.1%

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Mar 18, 2016

Closes:

Jul 31, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2017

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 18, 2016

Natural Sciences

Space

2016 Leaderboard

Researchers say there is now a 40% chance a ninth planet is in our solar system

•Jun 19, 2025

There’s Suddenly A 40% Chance ‘Planet Nine’ Exists — What To Know

Forbes•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

16%

Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

0.1%