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122 comments
168 forecasters

[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal?

Mike Johnson (R)result: Yes
Kevin Hern (R)Annulled
Steve Scalise (R)result: No
Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:Oct 3, 2023
Closes:Nov 15, 2023
Resolved:Oct 25, 2023
Politics
2023 Leaderboard
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Transcript: House Speaker Mike Johnson on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Sept. 14, 2025
CBS•Sep 14, 2025
Associated Press logo
Schumer warns of a shutdown if Republicans don’t accept Democrats’ health care demands
Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025
CNN logo
‘We need to do better’: A shaken Washington struggles to come together after Kirk’s death
CNN•Sep 12, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election?

Angela Rayner
25%
Keir Starmer
23%
Andy Burnham
15.5%
6 others
65 forecasters

If inaugurated as President in 2025, will these 2024 presidential candidates complete a full four-year term?

Kamala Harris
Annulled
Nikki Haley
Annulled
Ron DeSantis
Annulled
5 others
68 forecasters

Will the US Senate weaken or eliminate the filibuster before January 3, 2029?

20% chance
340
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