formulating calibrated insights computing probable understanding predicting precise futures exploring intelligent forecasts modeling quantitative predictions mapping the future forecasting critical insights generating quantitative insights predicting quantitative wisdom assembling quantitative insights forecasting definitive futures forecasting accurate understanding composing critical insights crowdsourcing quantitative contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the London housing market deflate in 2017?

London, England ranks as one of the most expensive cities in the world. Property prices grew by nearly 10% in 2015, stoking fears of a housing price bubble. In May 2013, the median home price in London topped 600,000 GBP, around double the median price in 2009, during the Great Recession. Afraid of a bubble bursting, particularly among the priciest homes, the Bank of Ireland in March stated that it would not give loans greater than 500,000 GBP to protect itself from possible losses in a market correction.

To support prices that are well out of range for average Londoners, the British government amended its Help to Buy program, which allows prospective homeowners to borrow up to 20% of the cost of the home from the government before seeking a mortgage for the rest. In London, the government borrowing limit is up to 40% of the home's value, and is capped at 600,000 GBP. But critics note that the program still requires a hefty down payment with loopholes that benefit the wealthy, keeping affordable housing out of reach.

Add into this mix the specter of the Brexit referendum. In the weeks following the vote, the number of homes sold in London's wealthiest neighborhoods dropped 43% from the same period the year before. Sales dropped around 18% in other neighborhoods.

Will 2017 be the year that the London housing market deflates?

This question will resolve as positive if the Mix-adjusted average house price and annual change by region, December 2017 for the London region drops below zero.

(Edit 11/12/16: fixed resolution criterion and question body to match title: 2017 NOT 2016.)

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.