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conditional
condition

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?

Resolved:No
29 forecasters
if yes
if no

1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?

66%
66%
Resolved:Annulled

1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?

3%
3%
2
4 comments4

Make a Prediction

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?

1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?

My Prediction: —
My Prediction: —
50%
community: 66%

This branch was annulled because the parent question resolved No.

50%
community: 3%
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Oct 9, 2023
Closed:Dec 31, 2023
Scheduled resolution:Aug 1, 2025
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics
2023 Leaderboard
Al Jazeera logo
Visualising 12 days of the Israel-Iran conflict
Al Jazeera•Jun 26, 2025
Newsweek logo
Four Signs Iran and Israel Could Soon Return to War
Newsweek•Jun 25, 2025
Raw Story logo
Three scenarios that could unfold after Trump drags U.S. into war with Iran
Raw Story•Jun 22, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

92%

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Oct 9, 2023
Closed:Dec 31, 2023
Scheduled resolution:Aug 1, 2025
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics
2023 Leaderboard
Al Jazeera logo
Visualising 12 days of the Israel-Iran conflict
Al Jazeera•Jun 26, 2025
Newsweek logo
Four Signs Iran and Israel Could Soon Return to War
Newsweek•Jun 25, 2025
Raw Story logo
Three scenarios that could unfold after Trump drags U.S. into war with Iran
Raw Story•Jun 22, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

92%

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

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