Question

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Resolved:No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters113

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 0.2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

99.0

Community Peer Score

2.1

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 13, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 16, 2023

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

Could Iran Really Make A Nuclear Weapon?

Forbes•Jun 24, 2025

Iran launches missiles at US assets in Qatar, Iraq after nuclear strikes

•Jun 23, 2025

As it attacks Iran's nuclear program, Israel maintains ambiguity about its own

Independent•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

3.6%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

90%

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

40%