• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
1
44 forecasters
1
1 comment
44 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election?

Resolved:No
44 forecasters
if yes
if no

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

1%
1%
Resolved:Annulled

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

1%
1%
Resolved:No
if Yes1%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
1 comment53 forecasters

War between India and Pakistan before 2027?

3%chance
9 comments314 forecasters

Countries With 1+ Fatality From Nuclear Det.

Ukraine15.1%
Israel13%
Pakistan11%
India10%
4 others
2 comments64 forecasters

Fatal Non-state Nuclear Detonation by 2030

1%chance
0 comments31 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?

20272%
20283%
20305%
0 comments34 forecasters

Nuc. Detonation in Non-Nuclear-Armed State

70%chance
0 comments134 forecasters

Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran Before 2027?

1%chance
0 comments24 forecasters

First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent

21.8%chance
12 comments67 forecasters

Fatality from Nuclear Detonation in N. Korea

24%chance