Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

condition

India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election?

Resolved:No

44 forecasters

if yes

if no

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Resolved:Annulled

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Resolved:No

1 1 comment

44 forecasters

Make a Prediction

India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election?	Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 1%

What was the final result? No

Community Peer Score

4.1

Community Baseline Score

98.4

if Yes

if No

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Apr 24, 2023

Closes:

May 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jun 1, 2024

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?

13% chance

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

307 forecasters

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

2% chance

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Apr 24, 2023

Closes:

May 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jun 1, 2024

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?

13% chance

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

307 forecasters

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

2% chance