conditional
condition

LLM passes ARA before 2025?

Resolved:No
28 forecasters
if yes
if no

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

3%
3%
Resolved:Annulled

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

1%
1%
Resolved:No
5
1

Make a Prediction

LLM passes ARA before 2025?

LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

50%
community: 0.5%

What was the final result? No

Community Baseline Score
98.4
Community Peer Score
3.4

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:Oct 4, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Conditional Cup
Artificial Intelligence
Computing and Math
2021-2025 Leaderboard