Question
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
Total Forecasters85
Community Prediction
2.5%
(1% - 5%)
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 4, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
10%
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?
51%
Authors:
Opened:Mar 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 4, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
10%
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?
51%