42 forecasters

Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

4.1%chance

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Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung ForkLeaf

Opened:

Nov 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 13, 2023

Watch: China's New Aircraft Carrier Demonstrates Aircraft Launch, Recovery

Red State•Sep 24, 2025

China Achieves Major Aircraft Carrier Breakthrough

Newsweek•Sep 22, 2025

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