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5
comments
42
forecasters
Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
4.1%
chance
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Authors:
NMorrison
NathanpmYoung
ForkLeaf
Opened:
Nov 10, 2023
Closes:
Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Nov 13, 2023
Technology
Geopolitics
News Match
US Carrier Loses Two Aircraft In 30 Minutes Over Chinese-Claimed Waters
Daily Caller
•
Oct 28, 2025
China’s newest aircraft carrier not as capable as 50-year-old US ship in one key respect, former US officers say
CNN
•
Oct 26, 2025
Satellite Photo Shows US Aircraft Carrier in Contested Waters
Newsweek
•
Oct 22, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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