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5
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42
forecasters
Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
3.7%
chance
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Authors:
NMorrison
NathanpmYoung
ForkLeaf
Opened:
Nov 10, 2023
Closes:
Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Nov 13, 2023
Technology
Geopolitics
News Match
US and China seek to project power with huge and expensive aircraft carriers
Guardian
•
Nov 8, 2025
China Tests America’s Naval Might With Latest Warship
Daily Caller
•
Nov 7, 2025
China commissions new aircraft carrier, challenging US naval dominance
Independent
•
Nov 7, 2025
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