Question

Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?

Resolved :No

24 comments24

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction

1.5%

(1% - 2.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

93.4

Community Peer Score

13.5

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Dec 1, 2023

Closes:

Feb 29, 2024

Resolves:

May 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2024

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Geopolitics

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Israel warns of severe response to strikes from Lebanon after vowing to intensify operations in Gaza

Independent•Mar 22, 2025

Israel fires on Lebanon in response to rockets fired at Israeli targets

NBC•Mar 22, 2025

Israel resumes Gaza war with broader goals and fewer limits

•Mar 21, 2025

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