MetaculusM

Question

Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

4

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction17%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17%

median 17.0%mean 17.9%

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Sinai Peninsula

Scenarios for the Middle East to 2026: Worse Before It’s Better • Stimson Center

•Nov 24, 2024

Hundreds flee north Gaza as IDF orders more evacuations amid intense airstrikes

Guardian•Nov 25, 2024

Israeli attacks kill six across Gaza, army issues new ‘evacuation order’

Al Jazeera•Nov 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Sinai Peninsula

Scenarios for the Middle East to 2026: Worse Before It’s Better • Stimson Center

•Nov 24, 2024

Hundreds flee north Gaza as IDF orders more evacuations amid intense airstrikes

Guardian•Nov 25, 2024

Israeli attacks kill six across Gaza, army issues new ‘evacuation order’

Al Jazeera•Nov 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch