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2 comments
12 forecasters

How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate?

5result: No
7result: Yes
6result: No
Authors:
RyanBeckTransparent_Replications
Opened:Nov 20, 2023
Closes:Nov 29, 2023
Resolved:Dec 2, 2023
Transparent Replications
Social Sciences
🏆 2023 Leaderboard

Will the finding in Bastian et al. (2012) that meat consumption is related to the denial of minds replicate?

Study 2
58.3%
Study 1
53%
16 forecasters

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

≥3%
50%
≥5%
39%
17 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind
20%
Microsoft
4%
xAI
3%
14 others
95 forecasters
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