Question

Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?

Resolved:Yes

30 comments30

Total Forecasters167

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

1.1

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Dec 10, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 13, 2023

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

What countries are in Nato and how much do they spend on defence?

•Jun 25, 2025

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump again questions NATO’s collective defense guarantee ahead of summit

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

12%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

15%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Dec 10, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 13, 2023

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

What countries are in Nato and how much do they spend on defence?

•Jun 25, 2025

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump again questions NATO’s collective defense guarantee ahead of summit

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

12%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

15%