Question

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

no comments0

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction

68%

(64% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 68%

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

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Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

80%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

Oct 2028

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

Elon Musk thinks robots are a $10 trillion business but China is catching up

CNN•Mar 25, 2025

Is The AI Boom Headed For Its ‘Dark Fiber’ Moment?

Forbes•Mar 25, 2025

NVIDIA Bets Big On American AI Manufacturing Despite Stock Warning

Forbes•Mar 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

80%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

Oct 2028