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38 forecasters

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

80%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:
DerMannOhneEigenschaften
Opened:Dec 6, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2033
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2033
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 20, 2023
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Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

90% chance
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25

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

19 Jun 2027
(20 Mar 2026 - 02 Aug 2030)
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28 forecasters
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