Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
10
comments
43
forecasters
How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?
community
1.88
result
1
Share
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
RyanBeck
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Dec 1, 2023
Closes:
Feb 29, 2024
Resolved:
Jun 3, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:
Jan 1, 2024
Global Pulse Tournament
Geopolitics
🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard
News Match
Trump claims Xi told him China won’t act against Taiwan while he is US president
Independent
•
Nov 3, 2025
How China and Taiwan are Preparing for War
Newsweek
•
Nov 2, 2025
US, China agree to set up military-to-military channels, Hegseth says
Al Jazeera
•
Nov 2, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?
1%
chance
259
Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?
10%
chance
397
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025
No
2026
0.3%
2028
12%
2 others
884
forecasters
Show More Questions