Question

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction

26%

(24% - 60%)

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50%

community: 26%

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Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Dec 29, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2024

Geopolitics

Pakistan’s army says it killed 30 fighters trying to cross Afghan border

Al Jazeera•Jul 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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35%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?

17%

Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

99.9%